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Australia Stakes 2016 racing preview
21 January 2016 10:41 AM
Moonee Valley hosts this weekend's feature race, the Group 2 Jeep Australia Stakes which includes some pretty smart sprinters. The Valley was rated a Good 3 on Thursday morning with only light showers predicted before they jump. The rail is out 3m which usually means horses three or four out around the turn are set-up to get favours from the camber in the straight.
Rebel Dane is the bookies favourite resuming after he finished 2 lengths behind champion sprinter Chautauqua at The Valley in the G1 Manikato. Expect him to get back as usual, but with good pace on up front. He won the G2 Shorts at Randwick on a Soft track when he resumed last time and has four wins and 2 placings from seven first-up starts. Two good Manikato runs over this distance without quite getting there suggests that The Valley doesn't best suit his racing style but then again there isn't a Chautauqua amongst this lot.
Durendal looks to make it four wins in-a-row here. Two of those wins were in easier company but the form lines in the G3 Standish Handicap hold up pretty well. Well drawn for a good crack at this.
Hucklebuck is another one resuming here. Has won 3 of 5 first-up starts and was injured in one of those. Has a good 1200m record but his best tends to come over a bit further. Barrier won't do him any favours either. Certainly has the class to win and goes in as one of the chances.
Holler put in a pretty impressive preparation last start. Good first-up 1.8 length third behind Exosphere and Press Statement with three solid runs up to G3 grade. Well drawn and definitely one to watch.
Trust In A Gust resumes after only two starts in 2015. Before that won the G1 Rupert Clarke (1400m), the G1 Toorak (1600m) and beat Under The Louvre over 1200m. No favours with barrier 13 though still a chance.
Mourinho won this event last year when resuming, beating Dissident. That was his only run over the distance. Recent fresh form looks strong when he won again last preparation in the WFA G2 Lawrence Stakes beating The Cleaner. Has to be considered.
Rageese is another three-year-old looking to make his mark this preparation. Some good runs showing his talent including third to Exosphere and Press Statement over the 1200m.
Sirbible looks like a four-year-old on the up with two smart wins this preparation. Next challenge here is up to weight-for-age.
Churchhill Dancer is another one in double figure odds who could easily surprise in this race. Ran two lengths behind Chautauqua in the Spring so no doubting that he is up to this.
Richies Vibe has some reasonable form over shorter distances. Not bad half length second at Morhphettville with 59kg last start. Will find this a lot tougher without much weight relief.
It Is Written ran second in this event last year ahead of Dissident. Has run well behind the likes of Angelic Light and Lankan Ruppee over 1200m before that so has the class to be competitive here. Well drawn and could be one of the surprise packets at good odds.
1st Mourinho - with two wins from his last two first-up runs I'm a big fan of his chances in this race.
2nd Rebel Dane - a better barrier has him on top; very surprised if he doesn't at least place.
3rd It Is Written - looks to be overs to me and a place would not surprise.
Mike Steward