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Japanese invaders poised to take Caulfield Cup
16 October 2014 11:16 AM
Not since 2006 when Delta Blues and Pop Rock got the Melbourne Cup quinella have we seen so much talent come from the land of the rising sun. There is a lot of positive noise coming from punters about the two Japanese entrants in Saturday's Caulfield Cup, Admire Rakti and Bande, with punters pledging their support the only way they know how.
Admire Ratki $11 has certainly proven that he is a world class stayer over his career. He ran fourth, one length behind the winner in last year's Japan Cup, a race where 2011 Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden finished fifth. Of his two runs this year, his stand-out performance was his second in a Group 2 race in Japan
Bande is capturing the majority of interest from Australian punters between the two Japanese runners however. In the past 24 hours he has attracted one in every three dollars wagered with Australian bookmakers on the Caulfield Cup, bringing his ealier odds of $9 into $7, with the money still coming in for him. Colourful trainer Naohiro Goda arrived in Melbourne from Japan earlier this week and took a taxi straight out to the track. He's first words to the Australian media was a complaint about his horse's 56.5 kilogram weight which he felt was at the level of a Group winner. Bande's best performance in a Group 1 race came last year in the Japanese St Leger where he finished third 5.3 lengths behind the winner on a heavy track. From his 12 career starts he has an impressive record of five wins and three thirds with all accept one of those coming on a Good track, which is what he can expect at Caulfield this Saturday. With his best win in Listed company in Japan, Bande has carried 56 kg three times over his last four runs and carried 57 kg for his third in Group 1 company, which casts a shadow on Goda's protests over his horse's weight.
Race
favourite Lucia Valentina has been steadily drifting in the
market as a result of the money pouring in for Bande, who is
now showing as the clear second favourite in the race. The
Newcastle mare is currently quoted at $4.60 in current fixed odds markets after
opening at $4.40 earlier in the week. Australian bookmakers expect the gap to
close even more between the two horses with a wave of bets expected to come
in from Japanese punters closer to the race.
Punters will have a tricky job on their hands lining up these two favoured runners. Lucia Valentina supports a similar career record with five wins and three places for her 12 career starts. Although yet to win beyond the 2000 metres, her Group 1 Turbull win says she will get the extra 400 metres easily. Bande on the other hand has three wins and a third from five starts over the distance so there is no doubt he will run it out.
The Turnbull answered a key question about Lucia Valentina for punters. Prior to the run she had only performed in Group company with the sting out of the ground, with a trend in her form suggesting the wetter the ground the better she ran prior to her Turnbull win. This theory was supported in the George Main when she ran a solid 2.7 lengths behind Sacred Falls over the 1600 metres on a Good track at Randwick. Her impressive win in the Turbull two weeks later on a Good track, dispelled these theories and so punters should be able to tick the 'track condition' box when they line her up against the likes of Bande and other runners in the Caulfield Cup.
Mike Steward