My Clubs
Start Club
Join Club
News
Caulfield Guineas 2016 race preview
06 October 2016 10:41 AM
The Caulfield Guineas is one of the top three-year-old races for colts and geldings on the Australian racing calendar. Run over 1600m it has seen top quality winners like Whobegotyou (2008), Weekend Hussler (2007) and Lohro (2001).
This race has produced two WS Cox Plate winners in recent years. In 2013 Shamus Award ran third behind Long John in the Caulfield Guineas and then went on to claim victory in the Cox Plate and paying $21. In 2009 So You Think finished fifth to Starspangledbanner in this race and went on to win the Plate at odds of $13 a few weeks later. He won it again in 2010 at the wafer thin odds of $1.50.
The contest this year is as open as ever with a stack of genuine chances in the race.
Impending has worked up to this distance nicely this preparation. Solid effort in the Golden Rose over 1400m behind a smart colt and then was strong over the line to win the Stan Fox after striking trouble in the running. Ticks all the boxes.
Divine Prophet has been strong at each of his three starts this campaign. Was solid through the line at his latest, a strong indicator that the extra distance suits nicely. Top contender.
Sacred Elixir finished last preparation winning the G1 JJ Atkins over the mile by 3.5 lengths. Started where he left off winning the Guineas Prelude first-up. Expect an improvement on that run with distance and fitness working in his favour. In this.
Evactuation looked good for 1600m at his recent outing when holding his ground to finish 2.8 lengths away after jumping from a wide gate and running wide for the journey.
Good Standing has been thereabouts against this opposition this preparation. Will need to improve more to figure.
Hey Doc looks like he's found his range at the mile. Won all three races this preparation performing better the longer they went. Barrier not ideal but has claims.
Saracino came home strongly at his latest outing to finish 1 length away after finding trouble in the straight. Well drawn to get a nice sit in the running. Chance.
Seaburge was unlucky not to win two starts back. Then made marginal ground in the closing stages to finish fourth in the Prelude. Needs to lift to get amongst it.
Wazzenme has been more competitive as his races have gone longer. Fast late splits suggest he's up to 1600m. Top effort in the Prelude jumping from barrier 13, losing momentum in the straight and still finished half a length from the winner. Could be the surprise packet.
Revolving Door was caught in the dying stages at his recent outing at 1400m. Good enough the start before when he made a lot of ground from the back of the field off sluggish pace. In the mix.
Kaching represents a bit of value at large double figure odds as I type. Was far from disgraced in the Stutt Stakes when jumping from a wide gate, going to the back of the field and coming home strongly to finish third, three lengths away. Can improve on that run.
Land Of Plenty finished second in the Stutt Stakes. Has to be considered a chance at odds.
So Si Bon has a case on the back of his 1.8 lengths sixth in the Prelude. Likely to improve third run back. Not hopeless.
Barbie's Boy carried 60kg at his recent outing finishing 2 lengths behind Bella Sorellastra who followed that run with a second in the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes.
The Verdict
Not an easy challenge here for punters, with cases on offer for most runners in the race. I put a strong weighting on form that shows a colt or gelding is a genuine miler. This has been one of the key factors for me in this race.
1st Sacred Elixir was good first-up at 1400m. Fitness and the extra ground make him a very good proposition in a very open race.
2nd Impending
3rd Evacuation
Every wondered which Sky Racing expert tipster makes more profit than the others? Get best bets and profit statistics for all Sky Racing tipsters here.
Mike Steward