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MRC Foundation Cup 2016 race preview
16 September 2016 11:16 AM
Caulfield was rated a Soft 7 on Friday morning, and with more rain predicted, the track is likely to deteriorate further before they jump. Previously named the Naturalism Stakes, race eight on the program is the Melbourne Racing Club Foundation Cup. This event is one of the first opportunities for horses to receive a guaranteed start in the Caulfield Cup later in October.
Interestingly, history has shown that the winner of this race has never gone on to win the Caulfield Cup in the 132 year history of the racing double.
Runners start at the end of the home straight over the 2000m and barrier statistics from the past nine years indicate that the first ten barriers have a greater success rate than those wider gates.
13. Tom Melbourne. Great run fresh when he stuck-on to run second all the way. Ran well in Listed company second-up in his previous prep when winning by 3.5 lengths at Albury in heavy conditions. Will appreciate the extra distance and one of the top hopes.
6. Jameka is working nicely up to this race. Great run first-up when she was unlucky not to finish closer. Most recent run in the Dato was much better than it looks on paper - ran wide throughout and closed nicely at the mile. Ready for 2000m now.
4. Real Love looks good for 2000m after coming home strong in the Dato. Excellent second-up record and JRA Cup form rates well for this. Good chance.
3. Excess Knowledge was just okay in the Dato. Second-up form is good but might need to see him one more time.
11. Great Esteem raced well beating Tom Melbourne last start. Prefers a dry track but not hopeless on wet ground. Benefited on the pace last start and whether he gets that pattern here will be the key to his chances.
16. Second Bullet has been a model of consistency for his past few preparations now. First time unplaced for a while when first-up fifth but made a lot of ground late over 1700m. Rates well if he runs up to best efforts last campaign.
8. Set Square has put in two solid runs leading into this race. Jumped from barrier 9 in her latest effort and stayed wide without cover but still remained strong over the line. Extra distance suits. Barrier not ideal but can't dismiss.
7. Magnapal has stepped up in distance nicely and looks ready for 2000m now. May have to be ridden from the rear jumping from barrier 13. Won this race last year. Has claims.
15. Gabella has been solid in both her runs back. Came home strong on soft ground at Flemington second-up. Looks like she wants the 2000m. Tough barrier but likes to race towards the rear. Expect her to be flying home.
12. Observational performed well at this distance in his previous preparation finishing a neck behind Lebaz at Caulfield. That puts him in with a chance here. Good soft track form. Can't dismiss.
2. Almoonqith didn't figure in a race that appeared to favour the leaders when first-up at Caulfield. Didn't enjoy a great autumn campaign. Prefer to see him go around here.
19. Master Zephyr put in some reasonable runs last prep then good first-up before being out sprinted over the mile at the Valley. Will appreciate the extra distance here.
20. The Bandit raced well in easier grade last campaign. Resumed nicely carrying 60kg. Is unbeaten second-up. Improver.
1. Gallante ran 2.3 lengths behind Preferment at this distance last Spring. Went on to win the Sydney Cup in the autumn (3200m). Chances improve the wetter it gets. Chance.
14. Swacadelic made a good impression in both runs back. Has handy form over 2000m and well drawn to take-up a good position in the running. Chance.
10. Berisha ran some fast late splits when resuming and then arguably was against leader bias at his latest outing at Caulfield. Will welcome the extra distance here.
5. Taiyoo hasn't won in almost two years now. Best efforts in his previous preparation were around this distance but needs to lift.
17. Zanteca hasn't had the ideal lead in to this race, mixing her form in three starts back. Hard to have.
9. Tall Ship finished at the rear in each of his three runs back.
18. Manndawi. Looking elsewhere.
1st Jameaka looks ready to shine here. With even luck she will be right in the finish.
2nd Real Love
3rd Gallante
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Mike Steward