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Australian Guineas 2016 race preview
04 March 2016 10:41 AM
Flemington was rated a Good 4 on Friday morning with the rail in its True position for the entire circuit. A bit of drizzle forecasted, but it is not expected to change the going at all.
The Australian Guineas is the other Group 1 three-year-old race on this Saturday. Starting along the side straight with little distance to run before they enter the big turn that leads the field into the home straight, so barriers are significant with history showing that gates 1 to 7 represent a 63% combined strike rate over the distance.
Xtravagant is all the rage with punters having won 5 of his 8 career starts in New Zealand. Last start was most impressive in G1 weight-for-age company winning by 8 lengths. Often different when they come across the Tasman but that's a record to be reckoned with.
Palentino has looked good in his two runs back from a spell. Had a case for winning both of those with bad luck first-up and losing that protest last start. Barrier 16 poses some challenges over this course. Going well enough though.
Tarzino is second-up. Last preparation he was very unlucky behind Press Statement over the mile. Solid return last start and won second-up last preparation. Strong proposition.
Mahuta has won six in-a-row coming into this including the G3 Carbine Club over 1600m. All of those wins have come since the blinkers went on. Should get to the front early here. A real chance if he withstands the pressure.
Perfect Reflection from the Darren Weir stable is second-up after a preparation which saw her beat Delicacy albeit on Heavy going. That says she is capable to figure in this. First-up in the vanity was sound enough running 1 length third.
Risque looks a handy filly winning a Group 1 in New Zealand and then proved she's up to it here in Australia winning a G3 at Caulfield first-up. Don't take lightly.
Tivaci impressed last start winning the CS Hayes regardless of what you think of the protest decision. Reasonable attempt only go over the mile. Consider.
Jameka started this preparation nicely finishing 1 length fourth in the G3 Vanity. Ran well for her only start over the mile finishing 1.8 lengths behind Stay With Me (running in the Randwick Guineas). Some chance.
River Wild would have finished closer in the Hayes if he didn't start poorly. Two solid runs before that. Steps up to 1600m for the first time but not without a chance.
Vanbrugh will be fitter for his first-up run. Extra 200m is a big plus for him too, proven up to 2000m. Gets back so wants the pace to be True at worst.
Sovereign Nation has claims. Good effort in the Hayes and he will definitely appreciate the extra distance here. Won the G2 Stutt Stakes in the Spring. Consider.
Sailing By ran 0.8 lengths behind Tarzino last start over the mile. Good first-up effort this preparation a nose behind Mahuta. Fitter and extra distance is good too. Can't dismiss.
Can make a case for Ready For Victory after he ran 2 lengths third behind Press Statement in the Caulfield Guineas over the mile. Bon Aurum was good in the Hayes running wide the trip. Snoopy one for the exotics.
1st Tarzino on top. Proven he has the class last preparation against Press Statement.
2nd Sovereign Nation
3rd Xtravagant
Mike Steward