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Vinery Stud Stakes 2016 race preview
25 March 2016 10:41 AM
Rosehill firmed to a Good 4 at 9.35 am on Friday morning. There is some chance of showers between now and the last on Saturday but the weatherman is saying that it won't be too significant so we've assumed a dry track when assessing the field.
The Vinery Stud Stakes is for three-year-old fillies over the 2000m. Most starters haven't raced beyond a mile which makes form assessment all that harder.
Jameka shapes-up as one of the hottest prospects for this race after leading and holding on to finish 2 lengths third in the Rosehill Guineas against the males where she jumped wide and raced without cover. Won and placed from two starts this distance. One to beat.
Risque was strong running a close third to Palentino last start. Hasn't raced beyond 1600m but last start at Flemington indicated she should be competitive over this distance.
Happy Hannah seems to be improving as she runs over further ground. Her last start win was good. Up in class but signs are she is up to it.
Valley Girl comes into contention on the back of her Group 1 weight-for-age win over 2000m in February. Then followed with a close fifth in the G1 NZ Derby where she found trouble early but still managed to finish just 0.6 lengths behind the winner. Has to be considered.
Capella is another fillie coming over from across the ditch. Also ran well in the NZ Derby finishing fourth 0.5 lengths from the winner. Comes into contentions.
Stay With Me finished with a wet sail last start over the mile suggesting the 2000m might be ideal for her. Beat Jameka over 1600m last Spring. Chance.
Asinara gets a tick on class and distance for me. Her run against Mary Lou rates well although only over 1400m. Her last run in G3 company at Kembla had 2000m written all over it. Can win.
Honesta finished last preparation strongly 2.2 lengths second to Jameka over 2500m in the G1 Crown Oaks. Has showed enough in her two starts back to put her into contention here. Definite chance.
Ambience has shown that she is competitive over the 2000m winning the G2 Wakeful and running third in the G3 Ethereal over this distance in the Spring. Her two runs this preparation have dented confidence levels but hard to totally dismiss.
Of the others worth keeping an eye on betting for Chabaud. Won over the 2040m at Moonee Valley then went on to win the Tasmanian Oaks. Could pop-up at the business end of the race.
1st Honesta looks a good value chance in this race. Expecting the speed to be on which will suit her race pattern here. She should settle somewhere between midfield and the back which will allow her to conserve energy nicely with the pace on. Craig Williams enhances her prospects here too.
2nd Jameka is hard to see here not figuring in the finish.
3rd Asinara
Mike Steward