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Queensland Oaks 2015 race review
28 May 2015 16:02 PM
Doomben was rated a Good 4 at 11.30 a.m Thursday morning and with sunny skies forecasted through the weekend it's not going to get any worse. The Queensland Oaks is for 3-year-old fillies run under set weight conditions over the 2200m course which gives runners 400m to the first turn as they pass the finishing post for the first time. There are only 16 runners starting. Five of the 21 nominated fillies are emergencies.
Lots to like about Winx here after winning the Group 3 Sunshine Coast Guineas in fine style a fortnight ago. She hasn't won past 1600m but has put in some very good efforts beyond 2000m. She will take a back position in the running but look for her flying home in the closing stages of the race.
Bohemian Lily will need to use her early speed from barrier 20 to take her preferred forward position. She could easily control things in front here but there are a half a dozen other fillies with speed in the race who may stop her from getting her own way. Definite winning chance.
Sebrina was unlucky last start not to finish closer over 2000m on a Heavy track. Still not convinced she will be at her best on a dry track over 2200m. Reasonable odds of $8 currently to find out.
Ballet Suite looks to be great value currently at double figure odds. Good win in the Heavy last start with some solid wins on dry tracks and she seems to be crying out for this distance. Barriers aren't usually a big concern over this course but she is the widest with only moderate gate speed. She tends to race towards the rear but backers will be hoping she doesn't drop too far back.
Ungrateful Ellen is a chance at odds. She gets a bit back but has shown that she can eat up ground late closing in for a 4.3 length fifth in the Group 1 Oaks at Morphettville and then similarly for third in the Group 3 SA Classic where she finished half a length away. Pace is likely to be true in the race so maybe third time lucky?
Rated chances at big odds
Really like the chances of Rustic Melody currently showing $17. She has the speed to get a good forward position and take a nice sit in the running. Recent form has been solid on Slow tracks. She gets a dry track on Saturday which she prefers. Zarzali showed great promise last start when she flew home behind Ballet Suite for third at Doomben and Col'N'Lil could easily sneak in a place here with a good barrier increasing her chances of getting an easier run to improve on recent efforts.
I like the chances of the back markers in this race and have put Ungrateful Ellen on top to win. I have Winx in for second and Rustic Melody at nice odds for third.
Mike Steward