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Queensland Oaks 2016 race preview
03 June 2016 10:41 AM
Racing returns to Eagle Farm for the first time in almost two years on Saturday for the running of the Group 1 Queensland Oaks. Weather forecasts suggest the welcome back party for one of Queensland's most loved race tracks could be spoilt, with up to 80mm of rain forecasted to fall on Saturday.
As I type on Friday morning, the track is rated a Good 4 but looking at the Brisbane radar that won't last for long.
I assumed a heavy track which is more than likely by the time they jump in race seven, the Queensland Oaks. The three-year-old fillies race over the 2400m, now with a reconstructed course proper which will be tested by the inclement weather. The 2400m course starts at the top of the home straight. Runners race 400m up to the finishing post and then complete a full circuit of the oval track.
Falkenberg has had a strong preparation so far. Won some easier races earlier in her campaign then had excuses in each of her three last starts. Held up last start in G2 The Roses, pattern against at Gold Coast before that and found trouble early three starts ago. No wet form to go on. In the mix.
Imposing Lass. Battled away over the concluding stages of The Roses after jumping from barrier 15 and finishing 1.5 lengths away from the winner over 2000m. Won four straight before that and won her only start on a wet track. Chance.
Dawnie Perfect finished well in The Roses last start coming from near last. Extra distance here should suit. Seven starts on wet going for a place. One of the chances.
Romantic Maid won a tough fought out race at Randwick a few weeks ago. Expect her to push ahead from a wide barrier. Harder here but expect further improvement
Provocative 1st emergency comes off a convincing win at Ipswich over 2200m. Two solid runs in New Zealand before that including the G2 Avondale Guineas. Kiwi three-year-old form has stood-up well in recent years. Rates highly.
Ambience jumps from barrier 21 from which she is likely to go to the back of the pack. Went close to winning the G1 ATC Oaks on Championships Day at Randwick. Was disappointing last start when she got back and came home at a moderate tempo to finish 6 lengths behind towards the back of the field. Some chance on her ATC Oaks run.
Kebede had all the favours in her win in The Roses. Drawn well here to get a good position in the running. Extra 400m to travel. Expect her to be competitive again.
Chabaud put in solid performances in the ATC Oaks over 2400m, finishing 1.6 lengths behind after being cramped for room. Won convincingly over 2500m in the G3 SA Classic last start. Has claims.
Self Esteem fought well last start in The Roses. Wasn't doing her best work as she passed the post which puts a bit of a query on her over the 2400m.
Tavi Bay won well last start at Caulfield over 2000m. Struggled in her only run on a heavy track.
Sebring Sally was very good last start at 100/1. Put in a long sustained run for home which argues a case here over 2400m. Can't dismiss.
Dulverton should have finished closer last start when locked in on the rails at the top of the straight with nowhere to go. Did well when she was clear. Ran okay in a few races last spring showing ability. Missed by 10 lengths in her only run on a heavy track. Have to give her some chance.
Tap This. Last start had merit after experiencing problems mid-race and then fighting out a close win over 2200m at the Gold Coast. Has some wet form. Outsider claims.
Alaskan Rose had some excuses in her two recent three-year-old outings. Was wide a good way before the turn in The Roses and still managed to make inroads in the straight, finishing 3.4 lengths behind the winner. Pattern was against in the ATC Oaks. Before that she found the line nicely in the G2 AdrianKnox over 2000m to finish 1 length away second. Has wet form on soft tracks. Could surprise.
Zasorceress rates well against Alaskan Rose on her third in the AdrianKnox just 1.5 lengths behind the winner. Outclassed her rivals at her last start maiden win at the Gold Coast winning by 1.8 lengths. Place chance.
Mount Omei might be worth keeping your eye on. Relished the step up in distance to 2000m at Kembla last start winning in open age. Extra credit given in Waller stable.
Sahara Siren, Beluga Blue, Queen Of Wands and Ashlee Marie have all shown promise in recent racing and aren't hopeless.
1st Provocative. Comes in with strong form over similar distances and three-year-old New Zealand form has been winning many stakes races in Australia lately.
2nd Imposing Lass
3rd Chabaud
Mike Steward