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Ballarat Cup 2016 race preview
18 November 2016 10:41 AM
The feature race this Saturday is the Ballarat Cup, a listed event run over the 2200m course at the popular Ballarat country race track. The track was rated a Good 4 on Friday morning and is expected to stay dry over the weekend.
Barrier statistics over the past nine years show a strong trend towards the inside barriers with strike rates diminishing beyond barrier eight. The straight is 450m long which is above average compared to metropolitan tracks.
The betting market is wide open in this race, currently marked at $7.50 the field. With 18 runners likely to start you should consider backing two or three runners in the race with an effective staking plan.
Form Analysis
18. Cool Chap is progressing nicely this preparation. Solid at his recent outing in G3 company. Finished second at this level and distance in the autumn. Contender.
14. Nozomi ran a solid race in a fast run 2000m at Flemington a few weeks ago finishing 1.2 lengths second. Up in grade a little here but drops 5.5kg from that run. In this.
2. Lidari. Has run well this preparation finishing second in the G2 Crystal Mike and then excuses from a wide draw two starts back at Flemington. Looked like he wanted more ground last start when solid over the line third at 1800m. One of the chances.
11. Lady Le Fay started her preparation well with two solid efforts. No favours from an inside barrier at the Valley third-up and excuses made last start. Has ability and capable of turning things around here.
1. Turnitaround backs up after winning the G3 Eclipse last Saturday at Sandown which was a significant improvement on his previous run at Flemington. Won four straight last prep so expect another big show.
15. Scherzoso should get back from his wide barrier. Looks like there's pace in the race which sets him up for a big finish. His third on Oaks Day at Flemington was a good trial for this race. Up a little in grade but drops 6kg from that run. Chance.
9. Lord Van Percy improved on his first-up run at his recent outing in the G3 Eclipse with fast late sectionals. Gets better with distance which puts his hoof right on the till in this race.
5. Puccini has put in two reasonable efforts this preparation. Hasn't won in almost two years but has come close against strong competition like second to Real Love at this distance in the G3 Premier's Cup last May. Can win if close to his best.
10. Observational has put in a few reasonable runs this campaign against stronger competition. Won his only start at this distance. Likely improver.
21. Charlevoix beat Cool Chap back in the autumn at 2400m. Finished fast first-up, a good trial for this distance. Is a good outside chance if he gets a start.
16. Pilote D'essai was working up to this distance nicely this preparation. Last run over 1800m casts a bit of doubt over his ability past the mile.
4. Taiyoo has redeemed himself at his two recent outings with strong closing runs. 2200m looks ideal now. Can't dismiss.
3. Rising Romance is mixing her form a bit these days. Her recent outing puts her in with a chance. Have to go back to the Memsie for an honest run prior to that. She is all over this lot on her best form. Keep safe.
6. Auvray ran okay at her last start after two ordinary performances. Worthy of consideration on that form but not confident.
12. Manageress ran well two starts back when a close third in listed company at Sale. Was wide throughout after jumping from 12 at her recent outing against G2 company. Prefer to watch.
8. Magnapal can't get confident on his form this preparation.
19. Golden Oldies winning in easier grades most recently. Harder here.
Of the others Desert Jeuney is some chance on the back of his third in the listed Cup Day Plate over 1800m. His lack of consistency is a worry though.
The Verdict
As the market suggests, there are many chances in this race. I am going with some great value chances here and I will play even stakes on each of my three top picks.
1st 14. Nozomi rates strongly at this level with the weight drop. Speed maps should position him well in the running. Big chance.
2nd 9. Lord Van Percy is right in this with the extra distance and a strong show last start at odds.
3rd 1. Turnitaround
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Mike Steward