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Winterbottom Stakes 2016 race preview
25 November 2016 10:41 AM
It's over to Perth for more quality racing this Saturday when Ascot hosts the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes. There's a strong field of twelve runners assembled for the 1200m sprint under weight-for-age conditions, with several top class sprinters who would hold their own in Group 1 sprints held over the Spring.
The 1200m starts in a chute at the top of the side straight giving runners 650m until they turn into the home straight. Once they straighten, runners have a short 300m until they past the post which puts significant emphasis on speed and positioning over the early stages of the race.
Form Analysis
2. Malaguerra has put in two big runs this preparation. Found just one better in the G2 Schillaci when resuming and then came home strong to win the G1 Darley down the Flemington straight last time. Has reasonable gate speed to position nicely from barrier one which should set him up to be right in the finish. Top chance.
1. Terravista just got beat carrying 60.5kg in listed company when resuming. Weight comes off but a slightly harder task here too. Drawn well to get a good sit in the running. Genuine contender.
4. Rock Magic has been a model of consistency this campaign with four placings and two wins from six starts. Has a bit of speed on either side of him which should see him settle worse than midfield. Expect a big effort.
3. Takedown gets back to his preferred distance here. Won second-up over 1200m in the G2 Premiere at Randwick. Expect him to get a good position camped behind the front-runners when they settle. Has the class to figure in the finish.
10. State Solicitor outstanding record winning six of seven starts and now promoted to the top grade under weight-for-age conditions. Big test for a genuine improver.
8. Vega Magic should get the lead from barrier two. Was unlucky first-up this prep. Has a great record this distance showing 7-2-1 from eleven starts. Competition steps-up here and the weight goes on.
11. Sheidel has a sensational record at this track missing the top prize once from ten starts. Was good enough in the Darley to come into contention at her favourite track. Can figure.
6. First Amongst Equals. Forgive his last two outings when he raced without luck. Finished close to Rock Magic at Belmont prior to those runs which gives him some hope.
5. Keen Array was average in the Darley without any apparent excuses. Not going as well as his rivals in this race.
7. Battle Hero seemed to hit a brick wall at his recent outing after a solid first-up effort. Hard to get confident about his chances.
12. Military Reign did little first-up to gain confidence in her chances here. Hasn't met rivals of this calibre before.
9. Regal Commander raced okay without luck against the likes of Vega Magic and Rock Magic at his two outings this preparation. Tougher assignment here and no weight relief at WFA.
The Verdict
I think the market has got in right in the Winterbottom. I have the top two well in front of this field. It was tough to decide on who to go with between them but I have swayed towards Terravista because of the speed maps which I see working nicely for him in this race.
Have Sheidel as the best of the rest. Her track record is hard to ignore and if she gets cover behind the leaders, she has the talent to be in the contest for a long way.
1st Terravista
2nd Malaguerra
3rd Sheidel
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Mike Steward