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Emirates Stakes 2016 race preview
04 November 2016 11:16 AM
The carnival rolls on at Flemington this Saturday with more top class Group 1 action for punters to feast on. Race seven is the Group 1 Emirates Stakes with over $2 million in prize money on offer. There were a lot of ramblings from commentators about track bias at Flemington this week. On Melboune Cup day last Tuesday, with the rail in its true position, it appeared that the fence was off. On Thursday for Oaks Day, with the rail out 3m, there was definitely a pattern that favoured leaders on the fence.
No news yet on where the rail will be on Stakes Day but you can bet that the jockeys are well aware of where the favours will be by the time race seven comes around.
Form Analysis
3. The United States. Was strong last week when finishing 1.2 lengths away in the G1 Cantala Stakes, a great result leading into this race. Was too good for them in the Crystal Mile before that. Proved his class at this distance in the autumn winning the Ranvet and finishing runner-up in the Queen Elizabeth. Hard to beat.
5. Vadamos was solid through the line after going hard early in the Cox Plate. Has won at this distance in France. Should get to the front from barrier 7, and if the rails plays like it did on Oaks Day, he could be hard to peg back in the home straight.
7. Scottish runner-up in the Caulfield Cup after doing a lot of early work facing the strong breeze that was in play that day. Has won three and placed once from four starts at this distance. Form lines tie to gun Irish horse Highland Reel. In this.
2. Hauraki was runner-up to The United States in the Ranvet (2000m) in the autumn. Great win in the Epsom. Likes this distance and expect to give a good show.
12. Good Standing. Previous win over 2000m at Caulfield rates well after leading all the way into the strong wind that day. Was solid the run before in the Caulfield Guineas over the mile. Drawn well to get a nice sit and if the rail is playing as well as it did on Thursday, he's going to be sitting pretty in the straight. Strong claims.
8. Endless Drama first run in Australia. Has won up to 1600m in the UK. Most recent effort at this distance he finished 4 lengths fifth in Group 3 company. Watch the market.
9. Palentino was strong when he won the Makybe Diva earlier in September but hasn't really fired since, although excuses can be made for his most recent effort when he almost fell in the straight. Ran second at his only effort this distance to Tally in G2 company amongst his own age group. Bigger test in this race.
13. Seaburge wasn't in the picture in open-age G1 company last Saturday. Doesn't get easier here and rises to 2000m for the first time.
10. Vanbrugh looks like 2000m is his distance after a solid run through the line in the Epsom two runs ago. Then won the Coongy at this distance at his most recent outing. Weight-for-age is a new challenge.
4. Happy Clapper has put in a solid preparation. Worked nicely through the distances up to the mile. His margin in the Cox Plate was behind Winx where he was strong through the line bridging the gap to Hartnell. Finished third in the Epsom under weight-for-age conditions at this distance. Not hopeless.
6. Awesome Rock finished only 2.5 lengths behind Hartnell in the Cox Plate. Lost the 2000m Australian Cup on protest in the autumn. Should sit a few pairs back in the running from barrier 9, which is ideal. Has a case.
11. Tivaci has been solid up to the mile this prep. Rise to 2000m is a bit of an unknown. Last time he raced at this distance was back in the 2015 Caulfield Classic where he finished 7 lengths last.
1. Happy Trails looked like he was ready for a menacing campaign after two runs back but then did nothing in the Cox Plate. Hard to have as an ageing nine-year-old.
The Verdict
Many chances in what is sure to be a great contest. 3, 5, 7 and 12 all rate as solid chances here.
1st Scottish goes on top. His Caulfield Cup run has a lot of merit, facing the strong breeze early and still managing to hold on to second. Career record says that 2000m is more his go.
2nd The United States. Will be very hard to beat at 2000m. Has been solid at his two recent outings and his Ranvet win in the autumn stays top of mind for his ability at this distance.
3rd Good Standing goes into the trifecta on the back of his recent win and light weight. Although his most recent win was easier than this, he did things tough facing the breeze in front that day. Then gets 51kg at weight-for-age and speed maps look good for him. Has to be a strong contender.
4th Vadamos comes into contentions on his effort at his only Australian start in the Cox Plate where he worked hard in the running and was still strong across the line.
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Mike Steward