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Betting tips for Randwick after The Championships
16 April 2015 12:57 PM
Another year over for The Championships as punters cast their judgment on Sydney's multi million dollar racing carnival. One of the most consistent compliments that came out of the post-mortems from punters was the quality of thoroughbreds that the events drew in from across Australia and overseas, attracted by the significant prize money on offer. One of the consistent complaints however was undoubtedly the state of the Randwick track. With the majority of Sydney's racing taking place at headquarters we have closely analysed the footage from both days of The Championships to make some sense of the racing patterns. I've outlined some key pointers to keep in mind for this Saturday's meeting which appears as though it will have a similar track profile again.
Drying track for Day 1 of The Championships
The first day of The Championships was postponed to the Monday, with the rail left in its True position. The track was rated a Heavy(9) for races 1 - 2 and was then upgraded to a Heavy(8) for races 3 to 5 and a Soft(7) for the remaining races on the program. That drying profile gave punters a challenging task for two reasons.
- Punters usually don't have time to adjust their analysis from say a Heavy(9) to a Soft(7) during the day. Other punters have probably loaded their bets earlier in the day and were unable to change them as the track dried.
- The second and probably more significant challenge is the lack of consistency across the track as it dries, with certain areas of the straight drying quicker than others.
There is no doubt that there was a pattern in the run home on the day with a clear bias towards the middle to wide lanes in the track. After studying the replays I think I had the sweet spot narrowed down to about 7 to 8 horses wide of the fence from the 250m mark to the post. There were several replays highlighting this theory but none better than Kermadec's win in the Doncaster. Keep your eyes on him in the white shirt with blue cap and hooped sleeves. Real Impact seemed to be going best with Royal Descent looking dangerous down the extreme outside. However their runs stopped abruptly while Kermadec leaped out of the ground.
In the TJ Smith Stakes the field turned closer to the fence leaving Chautauqua's run down the outside about 7-8 horses wide. Miss Cover Girl won the P J Bell Stakes close to that lane too and Pride of Dubai was right in the middle of it.
By the time they reached the last race, the Adrian Knox, the riders had worked it out and the entire field fanned wide to try and hit the spot in the straight. The plan for Bowman on Candelara seemed to be to lead and be first in the straight to grab the fast lane and then let it take him home. It worked a treat!
Same sweet spot for Day 2 of The Championships
With the rail out about six metres that sweet spot was about two to three wide of the fence on Day 2. Again the track was drying, going from a Heavy (8) to a Soft (7). Racing patterns proved that the same spot of turf performed best again with Gust of Wind, Amanpour, Avoid Lightning all finding these lanes from the 250m to winning post. Interestingly Jim Cassidy started his run on Grand Marshal from the 400m mark about 6-7 wide of the rail and steered the Sydney Cup winner on a diagonal run to finish along side Who Shot The Barman two wide of the rail. No doubt The Pumper knew were the best going was.
Key messages for punting at Randwick
The evidence from The Championships clearly indicates that there are parts of the Randwick straight that dry quicker than other parts and think the sweet spot sits about 7-8 wide of the rail in its True position from the 250m mark to the finishing post. If you are a punter here is how you can use this information when punting at Randwick.
- Is the track drying? If it's rated Soft or worse and the sun is out, then you can safely assume that it is. As was the case on both days of the Championships.
- Where is the rail? Understand that the theoretical sweet spot is relative to the rail in its True position. If the rail is out in the straight you will need to adjust accordingly.
- It's a drying track and I know where the sweet spot is. What now? It's good to know that information when you do the form. Consider barriers, speed maps and potential early speed of the runners to get an idea of where your favoured horses are likely to be positioned in the straight to take advantage of the best going. As we saw over the two days of the Championships the jockey's now where the going is best and will try to get there first in the straight.
Regardless of where the best running is in the straight, you still have to look for horses that can handle the going.
Mike Steward