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Place betting raises the stakes
23 April 2015 11:16 AM
Often seen as a less desirable way to punt, place betting is usually overlooked by punters or at the least used as an insurance bet through each-way betting. This week we spoke with a GTO tipster, Jude, who has found a way to make place bets pay through exotic betting. To increase his returns Jude places particular multi bets with Ladbrokes to create a parlay which cushions his losing days while still giving him significant upside. Over the last 40 punting days he has achieved returns over $3,000 a day from a $205 outlay through his clever form analysis and unique approach to multi betting.
Starts with good form analysis
Jude underlined repeatedly, the importance of form analysis and race selection towards his success. "Everything else is a function of how well I perform here". He tells us the reasons for him focusing on place betting is that he believes it is much harder to make money by betting for the win as horse racing is too unpredictable. "You might have picked the best horse in the race but he finds a bad part of the track or strikes some interference and can't finish in front". With this thinking in mind he contemplated two approaches to profit from his form analysis. Back multiple runners in a race to achieve a specific return, or to bet for the place. He chose the latter and after his success over the past six months, he is glad he did.
After performing his ratings for every horse in every race across the 5 main metropolitan race meetings on Saturday, he then rates all the races for risk. His approach to rating risk in a race is worthy of an article in itself but as a summary, the more risk he sees in the race the higher the rating. He looks for the highest value bets with the lowest risk rated races. The top four picks make up his four leg multi.
A big upside while cushioning the downside
It sounds too good to be true but Jude says he has perfected a betting approach using his top four place bets which allows him to cushion his losses while giving him significant upside on winning days. Places 1 unit on the four leg multi where all are place bets, 2.5 units on the three leg multis and 5 units on the two leg multis. What he is actually doing here is having:
- 1 x four leg multibets at 1 unit each = 1 unit
- 4 x three leg multibets at 2.5 units each = 10 units
- 6 x two leg multibets at 5 units each = 30 units
His bet totals 41 units. His average unit bet is $5 and so he spends about $205 (i.e. 41 units x $5).
To demonstrate how this approach works for Jade let's assume the four picks are at $2.65 fixed odds, which is a bit below his average place winning odds. Jude says on average he needs 2 legs to get a place to get near enough to his money back, three winners gives him a nice win and four is big win.
2 place getters get-up
In this scenario, only one of the 11 multi bets is in the money. If each place getter pays $2.65 a single unit pays $7.02. He has 5 units on that multi per the staking approach outlined above so that's $35.11 and $5 on each unit. Therefore his return from winning 2 multi legs = $175.55. Not far away from money back
3 place getters get-up
Jude is well in the money here. If three of his place picks get a place he has 3 x two leg multis in the money and 1 x three leg multi in the money.
His 3 two leg multis each pay $7.02 which totals $21.06 for each unit. With 5 units on each two leg multi, the combined return is $105.30. With $5 on each unit his total return here equals $526.50.
His three leg muli pays $18.61. 2.5 units on it pays $46.53 multiplied by his $5 per unit gives him $232.65 for the three legger.
Total received for the scenario where three legs win equals $759.15 which is a profit of $554.15
All 4 place getters get-up
Now he is really in the money. In this case all 11 multi-bets pay. Which means
6 two leg multis each paying $7.02 = $42.12 per unit. 5 units at $5 per unit = $1,053
4 three leg multis each paying $18.61 = $74.44 per unit. 2.5 units at $5 per unit = $930.50
1 four leg multi paying $49.32 per unit with $5 per unit = $246.58
In total his parlay multi returns him $2,230.08 which represents a profit of $2,025.08.
This example shows Jude losing a small amount with two place getters getting up however in practice Jade says he is just about even when he gets two legs up, as his average odds have been a little higher in these circumstances. Over the past 40 days he has lost money on only 3 occasions. He has won $200 or more (which represents 100% win profit on turnover for the day) on 13 occasions. His average return from a $205 outlay is currently $459 assisted by two days where he got all four legs up and received in excess of $3,000 from each.
Jude posts his tips in Australia's only tipping market that brings media form analysts and punters together on the one page, at theGreatTipOff.com.
Mike Steward