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Melbourne Cup winner primed for Sydney Cup
10 April 2015 17:13 PM
The first day of The Championships didn't disappoint punters at all, highlighted by a freakish run from last by Chautauqua to claim the TJ Smith Stakes on the post. What made the win so amazing was the way the talented 4-year-old horse defied the significant bias towards front-runners that was seen all day, as he closed ground on the leaders with every stride in the straight.
This weekend the excitement continues. One of the feature races is the $1.6 million Sydney Cup. It's the earliest trial for this year's Melbourne Cup and it includes a cracking field of 11 runners with hot UK import Hartnell a short priced $2.20 favourite on Fixed Odds markets. He certainly deserves favourtism after his two wins from his last two starts but can he maintain that form stepping up to 3200m?
His form certainly says that he can but whether he will have things all his own way at that distance is another question. One of his main dangers is the winner of the 2014 Melbourne Cup Protectionist. Although without a win from his three runs this preparation, his performance in each run reads as a perfect build-up towards the 3200m. This week trainer Kris Lees acknowledged the Cup winner's need for longer ground to become a winning chance. Well he certainly gets that on Saturday.
One of the biggest challenges facing the Lees horse is the significant weight difference between him and Hartnell compared to when they last met in the BMW. He ran fifth 2.2 lengths behind him then but meets him 4.5 kg worse in the weights on Saturday.
Another factor will be the impact of any track bias towards leaders that we saw on Monday. Protectionist gets back in his races while Hartnell tends to race just off the speed. Similar bias will definitely fall into the favourite's hands.
Although Hartnell has won over the two miles it is difficult to line these two main chances-up over the distance. Lees' comments about Protectionist's big lungs siting his freakish ability to quickly recover after each run and his need for further ground, suggests his chances improve with every metre that they run.
Throw into the mix the other main danger, Who Shot The Barman, who finished 4.5 lengths third in last year's Melbourne Cup and 2 lengths fourth in the BMW. He meets Protectionist 3.5kg better in the weights and showed he is on track for this race with his last start performance.
It will be a great contest and each of these three chances are sure to be in the mix in the shadows of the post.
Mike Steward