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3 common mistakes that punters make
27 August 2015 12:57 PM
Last week we provided punters with a very simple but effective staking plan. The tool was designed to provide time-poor social punters with a straight-forward method to drive the size of their bets. Keeping the theme of easy-to-use betting tools going, this week we have put together the Top 3 mistakes that punters make when betting.
1. Following Market Movers too far
I once spent half an hour trying to explain to a punter that a horse can be a very good bet at say $5 but a terrible bet at $3.50. In the end I gave up, but I understood the perspective of the punter who I was trying to explain it too. He, like many punters, takes the view that a winner is a winner regardless of the odds, while smart punters won't back a horse when it's odds are not greater than its perceived chances of winning.
We've written a fair bit about this concept but simply put - you wouldn't take $1.50 for Heads on Anzac Day. The same thinking applies to horse racing and any other sport involving odds. The only difference is that odds are more subjective in racing than say Two-up, cards or dice. The complexity associated with pricing a betting market too often results in punters ignoring odds altogether. If you habitually follow a market mover because there's a belief that the smart money is on it, then it is more than likely that you are getting a price that is under the horse's real chance of winning, as the snowball effect of a shortening price on 'good thing' plays out.
If you must back a market mover, try and get in as early as possible and don't make a habit of backing them.
2. One bet per race mindset
How many times have I heard a punter scream out after a race "I liked that thing" only to find they backed something else.
Q. "Why didn't you back it?"
A. "I prefferred the horse I backed"
Why not back both?
It seems as though some punters have conditioned themselves to only back one horse in a race which isn't a favourable restriction to place on yourself. One punter explained he wouldn't win as much if he backed multiple horses in a race and therefore wasn't interested in doing it. Profit levels are likely to be lower in each race where you win, that is true, but you are also reducing your risk with it. Ideally the multiple horses selected have a good winning chance and are over the odds, which should lead to better results. Making say 50%-70% profit on turnover each race may not give the rush of blood that backing one horse at say double figure odds gives, but it's a smart way to punt if you like more than one horse in a race. When backing more than one horse, we recommend using a staking calculator that guides the stakes that you place on each horse to win a targeted profit amount.
3. No staking plan
Yes we are banging on about it again but it's a critical part of successful punting and not enough punters use one. If staking plans aren't your thing then remember that there is always another day. At the very least don't increase your bets to get back what you lost on the day.
Mike Steward