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First up runners 5 things to consider before you bet
14 August 2015 17:13 PM
The smell of Spring is in the air as this weekend's Melbourne and Sydney metropolitan race meetings host four Group races between them. Caulfield has a Group 2 and two Group 3 races this Saturday, while Rosehill has the Group 3 San Domenico Stakes. Over half the starters in these four quality races are first-starters, a predicament that punters can expect again and again over the coming weeks as more horses commence their Spring preparations. First-start statistics on the form guide are a good place to start but there are other things to consider when assessing a horse fresh, so we've put together the five key things punters should consider when assessing first-up runners.
First-up Form
The first-up statistics for a resuming horse are probably the first thing that every punter looks for. The usual thinking here is that if it has a high win and place strike rate then the horse loves it fresh, if it has a low first-up strike rate then it is suspect and somewhere in between means its a fair chance. That's not a bad start but there's probably a bit more devil in the detail. Things like the class of the races where it ran first-up compared to the race you're assessing, the conditions it ran in, weight it carried, distance it ran over and potential barrier or track bias that played against it should also be considered. Expert punters are usually looking to get a gauge on its fitness level at each of these runs to assess it's potential fresh. If you don't have access to video replays then look out for a trusted narrative describing how the horse handled its past first-up runs.
How did it finish last preparation?
A horse's performance trends are similar to any sports person. In the context of their career they are either on the up, plataued or coming down from their peak. A review of performances in past spells can often provide punters with an understanding of where a runner is in its career and so previous first-up runs can be assessed accordingly. Time between spells is another important factor to look out for. Longer spells usually mean the horse has had health issues or possibly other matters relating to fitness.
Trials
For some punters trials can be one of the best indicators for horses that are resuming while for others it can be very deceiving. Every trainer has their own style and so they use trials in different ways. Some trainers want their horses to figure in the finish while others insist that the rider gives them a quiet run. It takes a keen eye to read a trial and understand if a horse is spent or still has a lot in reserve, and then use that information relative to where it finishes. If you haven't got access to the opinions of experienced trial trackers like Michael Gannon, it is best to use trial information lightly.
Fitness
It's wrong to assume that a horse isn't fit or ready to win if it hasn't raced in an official trial. Official trials aren't the only way that a horse can get fit before starting to race. Most training facilities these days are well equipped to run their own jump-outs which aren't recorded on the public record. While some trainers don't use jump-outs for certain horses and choose to use alternative methods to get their stables fit.
The Betting Market
When there are a lot of first-up runners in the market there is a lot of information that is hidden from the the majority of punters. In the absence of information market leads can often have a greater impact on betting behaviour. Interestingly the strike rate for first-up favourites over the last 10 years far out-performs the strike rate for favourites over the entire population of races in Australia. This statistic alone talks to the power of a genuine market lead in a race where a lot of the runners are first-up. So if you are lost in races where there are a number of first-up runners, market movers can be a useful guide.
Mike Steward