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Simple staking plan for the punter that doesn't have one
21 August 2015 17:13 PM
If you are anything like the average punter your staking plan probably goes something like this. Start with an average size bet. If I get a few winners up early, increase my bet and if I am losing decrease stake accordingly or go all out with one big bet to get back in the game. With a clear head it doesn't sound great, but as punters, we know that the heart often rules the head.
A recent betting survey of the Australian market indicated that over 75% of punters don't use a staking plan and of the remaining 25%, half of those use a simple approach where they change there bet size depending on the odds of the runner they are backing. An overwhelming majority in the 75% category pointed to a lack of knowledge on how to apply a staking plan as the key reason for them not using one. For punters falling into this category, here is a simple approach with sound logic to guide the size of bets placed depending on the circumstances.
The Plan
This staking plan is very straightforward and built around sound betting principles. It considers three factors to drive the amount staked on a particular horse in any given race. For two of these factors you have to set a score out of three and then multiply those scores together and apply them to a third factor to arrive at the stake amount.
Confidence
The staking plan requires punters to rate their confidence in the selected horse as either low (1), medium (2) or high (3). A good approach to help here is to identify the number of issues that concern you in the race. It might be an unknown factor about the the horse singled out, like lack of runs on a wet track, or another horse in the market that's seen as a danger. Your score should consider the number of these factors and their significance as an indicator of your confidence in the selection.
Overs or unders
Not everyone can price a market but punters can often form a view about a horse's chances compared to the odds on offer. If you are not sure if a horse is unders or overs rate this factor as a 2. Otherwise it's a 3 if you think it's over the odds or a 1 if its unders.
Stake to win
Next step is to set a profit level to target on the day. If you're depositing say $200 to bet with, think of the target as a factor of that amount, for example doubling it to win $200.
Multiplying the two scores will give a number out of 9 which will drive the percentage of the daily profit targeted with each bet.
If the score is middle range, 4,5 or 6, the bet profit target is set at 50% of the $200 daily target ($100), and so the stake needs to be set to win this much. As an example, if your favoured horse is paying $5, and the two scores multiplied together equal 6, then the bet is $25 returning $125 for a $100 profit.
If the score was 1,2 or 3 the targeted win in the race is reduced by half, which is $50 in this example. The bet is then $12.50 on the $5 chance to return $62.50 and profit $50.
If the score was 7,8 or 9 then increase the target win amount from the middle range stake by 50%, which means you're staking to win $150. Betting $37.5 on the $5 pop returns $187.50 for a profit of $150.
In this example, to achieve a $200 profit the bet size varied between $12.50 to $37.50 depending on your confidence level and assessment of overs or unders throughout the day.
If you've got a staking plan that works, email us at CustomerService@puntersclubhero.com and if we publish it we will reward you with a $50 prize.
Mike Steward